1 crore cases in India : Why that’s excellent news

What was the news?

The Indian Council for Medical research yesterday published results of a sero survey showing that prevalence of Covid19 in India is 0.73%

The ICMR has also published a very critical number – The Infection Fatality Rate is 0.08%

Okay what is a sero survey?

The current testing for Covid 19 checks if a person is currently infected. Obviously to treat him and trace his contacts.

A sero survey looks for antibodies. The survey, if positive, shows that the person was infected by Covid 19 and has recovered. Once he or she recovers, there are Covid 19 antibodies in his system.

Okay, so what does this mean?

The survey shows that 0.73% of the population was infected with Covid 19 and has recovered.

Translating that to real numbers for the entire population of 1.35 billion in India, it means 1 crore people in India have been infected with Covid 19.

They were infected, their body’s immune system fought the disease and it produced antibodies. These people weren’t aware that they caught the disease, but the antibody test showed that they had it and they recovered.

What? Why on earth is that good news?

Three reasons.

One, it shows that for most people the disease is so mild that you won’t even know youve caught it and that youve recovered from it – like a simple sniffle or a cough! Well, this shows that the balance 97 lakh of the population (1 crore minus 3 lakh reported) weren’t even aware that they were infected. And they have recovered!

Two, and equally important, it shows that the disease is not as deadly as we initially thought. The death rate is 0.08%, which is much lower than what the media has been reporting of 3%. ICMR has also published this number in the report.

For all the doomsayers who said that the government is under reporting cases, it’s actually good news when the number of cases is higher than reported. Because your chance of dying even if youve caught the disease is much, much, much lower than we initially thought.

And three, the recovery rate is close to 99%!

Is this a fact? Or opinion?

As factual as it can be. The ICMR has published the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) as 0.08%. You can Google what IFR means. So nothing in this post is opinion.

It’s cold facts.

Are there any other countries that have similar findings?

Of course. The CDC in the USA, equivalent to the ICMR in India, has published the IFR there as 0.26%. They are more conservative in their approach and estimate only 35% as asymptomatic. Stanford University has also done a sero study showing 1.5% of the population is infected.

So the risk of dying from Covid 19 is 0.08%?

Nope, that’s the Infection Fatality Rate. That means that out of 10000 people who are infected with Covid 19, 8 will die. And most of them who have co-morbidities.

The risk of dying from Covid 19 as of June 10 in India is even lower – 0.0006%.

But that’s still a risk isn’t it? Anything more than 0 means it’s a risk?

Anything has a risk. But we weigh that risk against the potential benefits. For example, there’s a risk of 0.011% of dying in a road accident in India. Almost 15 times higher than the risk of dying of Covid 19. But we say that that risk is tiny compared to the benefits of road travel. We accept the risk of flying against the minute possibility of the aircraft crashing.

And we relish the taste of fried food, against the small possibility of dying of a heart attack. Which is 150 times higher than dying of Covid 19 in India for ages between 30 and 69.

The risk of dying of Covid 19 in India is 0.0006%. We weigh that against sitting cooped up at home and decide that we have to move out.

There will never be 0 risk of dying. Ever.

Why aren’t there celebrations then?

Because we are flooded by a strong current of negative news by the media. It’s in their DNA to publish bad news to grab eyeballs for advertising revenue. We’re also flooded by negative news on social media. The government is worried that they’ll lose votes because the lockdown failed, so they’re busy scaring us.

We have to buck the trend and celebrate the reality. Every one of us who reads this and believes this needs to spread the word and the belief. It also means that we should start moving towards normalcy. No, not the “New” normal but the old one. Be safe, no one wants to catch the infection. But let’s get back to restarting our normal life.

Catch that coffee with friends. Take your kids out for that meal out on a Sunday. Shop for the latest fashions. The economy needs us to restart the virtuous cycle. The waiters, the Uber drivers, the salesmen in malls – Everyone needs us to get going again.

Share this post if you believe that we need to get back to normal.